The governmental Accounting and the theory of the Political cycles: an empirical fiscal and acounting analysis on rio de janeiro state ´s municipalities - 1998 / 2006.

Abstract

The paper investigates the behaviour of municipal accounting data in order to detect whether there are cyclical effects due to the election years from 1998 - 2006. Using a panel approach that combines time series and cross-sectional data, several regression equations are estimated via a fixed effects specification. Findings indicate that electoral periods exert (statistically) significant influences on municipal accounts corrected for the population. In addition it seems that mayors obtain super-avits in years before elections so that they can make use of them during electoral periods. For mayors running to be re-elected, the reduction of pending debts suggests that they may become conservative so as to avoid future expenses. The inverse effect of partisan occirance between mayors and, either governors or the president, show that there may be an implicit agreement across government levels as long as some public expenses are concerned.