Effects of the life cycle stage on errors in earnings forecasts and their value relevance
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17524/repec.v19.e3779Palavras-chave:
analistas financeiros, previsões dos analistas, erro de previsão, relevância de valor, ciclo de vida da firmaResumo
Objective: This study analyzed the effects of the firm's life cycle stages on analysts' earnings forecast error and on their value relevance.
Method: A sample of companies listed on the Brazilian capital market was analyzed from 2011 to 2022, with data collected from Refinitiv Eikon® and analyzed using regression models estimated using the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM).
Results: The results suggest a lower error in earnings per share forecasts in the maturity phase and that investors respond negatively to earnings forecast errors with an optimistic bias, with different intensities depending on the firm's life cycle stage. Therefore, the characteristics of the operating environment and more persistent results of mature companies are associated with lower forecast errors. In addition, the relevance of analysts' forecasts of earnings is significantly associated with share prices.
Contributions: The findings provide useful evidence for different market agents, including investors, financial analysts, and corporate managers. Studies that investigate the value relevance assigned by investors to different types of information - such as analysts' forecast errors - are essential for a better understanding of how the market reacts to signals about the quality of information provided by financial intermediaries, such as financial analysts.
Keywords: Financial Analysts, Analysts' forecasts, Forecast Error, Value Relevance, Firm Life Cycle.
Tradução
Este artigo é uma tradução em English do artigo:
Efeitos do estágio do ciclo de vida nos erros de previsão de lucros e na relevância de valor
Referências
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Almeida, J. E., & Kale, D. (2024). Firm life cycle and accrual quality. Advances in Accounting, 67, 100762. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2024.100762
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Bandeira, A. M., & Almeida, J. E. F. D. (2024). Effects of firm life cycle on matching and accrual quality. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 35(96), e1817. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x20241817.en
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Brown, L. D. (1997). Analyst forecasting errors: Additional evidence. Financial Analysts Journal, 53(6), 81–88. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v53.n6.2133
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Healy, P. M., & Palepu, K. G. (2001). Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of accounting and economics, 31(1-3), 405-440. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(01)00018-0
Hu, H., Jia, Z., & Yang, S. (2025). Exploring FinTech, green finance, and ESG performance across corporate life-cycles. International Review of Financial Analysis, 97, 103871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103871
Jaggi, B., Allini, A., Casciello, R., & Meucci, F. (2022). Firm life cycle stages and earnings management. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 59(3), 1019–1049. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-022-01069-5
Jenkins, D. S., Kane, G. D., & Velury, U. (2004). The Impact of the Corporate Life-Cycle on the Value-Relevance of Disaggregated Earnings Components. Review of Accounting and Finance, 3(4), 5–20. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb043411
Johnston, J., Guidry, R. P., & Trimble, M. (2021). Temporal changes in the value relevance of analysts’ forecasts. Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance, 32(2), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.1002/jcaf.22478
Karamanou, I. (2012). Value relevance of analyst earnings forecasts in emerging markets. Advances in Accounting, 28(1), 128–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2012.03.002
Lester, D. L., Parnell, J. A., & Carraher, S. (2003). Organizational life cycle: a five-stage empirical scale. The International Journal of Organizational Analysis, 11(4), 339–354. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb028979
Lima, A. S. de, Carvalho, E. V. A. de, Paulo, E., & Girão, L. F. de A. P. (2015). Estágios do Ciclo de Vida e Qualidade das Informações Contábeis no Brasil. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 19(3), 398–418. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-7849rac20151711
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Nicolò, G., Santis, S., Incollingo, A., & Tartaglia Polcini, P. (2024). Value Relevance Research in Accounting and Reporting Domains: A Bibliometric Analysis. Accounting in Europe, 21(2), 176–211. https://doi.org/10.1080/17449480.2023.2292654
Nizar, H., Uyar, A., Lakhal, F., & Karaman, A. S. (2025). Does the Corporate Lifecycle Affect Board Structure? International Evidence. Corporate Governance: An International Review, corg.12645. https://doi.org/10.1111/corg.12645
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Oliveira, W. da C. de, & Monte-Mor, D. S. (2022). The Influence of the Organizational Life Cycle on the Violation of Financial Covenants. Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios, 24(4), 708–722. https://doi.org/10.7819/rbgn.v24i4.4204
Ou, J. A., & Sepe, J. F. (2002). Analysts earnings forecasts and the roles of earnings and book value in equity valuation. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 29(3–4), 287–316. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5957.00433
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Penrose, E. T. (1952). Biological Analogies in the Theory of the Firm. The American Economic Review, 42(5), 804–819. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1812528
Pimentel, R. C., & De Aguiar, A. B. (2016). The role of earnings persistence in valuation accuracy and the time horizon. RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, 56(1), 71–86. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-759020160107
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Almand, A., Cantrell, B., & Dickinson, V. (2023). Accruals and firm life cycle: Improving regulatory earnings management detection. Advances in Accounting, 60(January), 100642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2023.100642
Almeida, J. E. F. de, & Dalmácio, F. Z. (2015). The Effects of Corporate Governance and Product Market Competition on Analysts’ Forecasts: Evidence from the Brazilian Capital Market. The International Journal of Accounting, 50(3), 316–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intacc.2015.07.007
Almeida, J. E., & Kale, D. (2024). Firm life cycle and accrual quality. Advances in Accounting, 67, 100762. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2024.100762
Anthony, J. H., & Ramesh, K. (1992). Association between accounting performance measures and stock prices. A test of the life cycle hypothesis. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 15(2–3), 203–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)90018-W
Ball, R., & Brown, P. (2019). Ball and Brown (1968) after fifty years. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 53, 410–431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2018.12.008
Bandeira, A. M., & Almeida, J. E. F. D. (2024). Effects of firm life cycle on matching and accrual quality. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 35(96), e1817. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x20241817.en
Barth, M. E., Li, K., & McClure, C. G. (2023). Evolution in Value Relevance of Accounting Information. The Accounting Review, 98(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.2308/TAR-2019-0521
Brown, L. D. (1997). Analyst forecasting errors: Additional evidence. Financial Analysts Journal, 53(6), 81–88. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v53.n6.2133
Chen, S. K., Chang, Y.-L., & Fu, C.-J. (2010). The impact of life cycle on the value relevance of financial performance measures. Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, 7, 37–58. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1477-4070(2010)0000007006
Chen, T., Xie, L., & Zhang, Y. (2017). How does analysts’ forecast quality relate to corporate investment efficiency? Journal of Corporate Finance, 43, 217–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.12.010
Chourou, L., Purda, L., & Saadi, S. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and analysts’ forecast characteristics. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 40(4), 106775. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaccpubpol.2020.106775
Covrig, V., & Low, B. S. (2005). The relevance of analysts’ earnings forecasts in Japan. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 32(7–8), 1437–1463. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2005.00635.x
Dalmácio, F. Z., Lopes, A. B., Rezende, A. J., & Sarlo Neto, A. (2013). Uma análise da relação entre governança corporativa e acurácia das previsões dos analistas do mercado brasileiro. RAM. Revista de Administração Mackenzie, 14(5), 104–139. https://doi.org/10.1590/s1678-69712013000500005
Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle. The Accounting Review, 86(6), 1969–1994. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-10130
Dickinson, V., Kassa, H., & Schaberl, P. D. (2018). What information matters to investors at different stages of a firm’s life cycle? Advances in Accounting, 42, 22–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2018.07.002
Ferreira, M. P., Ribeiro, A. M., & Vicente, E. F. R. (2025). Efeito moderador do risco idiossincrático no valor de mercado do caixa: Um estudo em empresas brasileiras familiares e não familiares. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 36(97), e1875. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x20241875.pt
Fodor, A., Lovelace, K. B., Singal, V., & Tayal, J. (2024). Does firm life cycle stage affect investor perceptions? Evidence from earnings announcement reactions. Review of Accounting Studies, 29(2), 1039–1096. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-022-09749-2
Frezatti, F., Bido, D. de S., Mucci, D. M., & Beck, F. (2017). Estágios Do Ciclo De Vida E Perfil De Empresas Familiares Brasileiras. RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, 57(6), 601–619. https://doi.org/10.1590/s0034-759020170607
Habib, A., & Hasan, M. M. (2019). Corporate life cycle research in accounting, finance and corporate governance: A survey, and directions for future research. International Review of Financial Analysis, 61, 188–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.12.004
Hasan, M. M., Hossain, M., Cheung, A. W. K., & Habib, A. (2015). Corporate life cycle and cost of equity capital. Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, 11(1), 46–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcae.2014.12.002
Healy, P. M., & Palepu, K. G. (2001). Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature. Journal of accounting and economics, 31(1-3), 405-440. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(01)00018-0
Hu, H., Jia, Z., & Yang, S. (2025). Exploring FinTech, green finance, and ESG performance across corporate life-cycles. International Review of Financial Analysis, 97, 103871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103871
Jaggi, B., Allini, A., Casciello, R., & Meucci, F. (2022). Firm life cycle stages and earnings management. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 59(3), 1019–1049. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-022-01069-5
Jenkins, D. S., Kane, G. D., & Velury, U. (2004). The Impact of the Corporate Life-Cycle on the Value-Relevance of Disaggregated Earnings Components. Review of Accounting and Finance, 3(4), 5–20. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb043411
Johnston, J., Guidry, R. P., & Trimble, M. (2021). Temporal changes in the value relevance of analysts’ forecasts. Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance, 32(2), 7–21. https://doi.org/10.1002/jcaf.22478
Karamanou, I. (2012). Value relevance of analyst earnings forecasts in emerging markets. Advances in Accounting, 28(1), 128–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2012.03.002
Lester, D. L., Parnell, J. A., & Carraher, S. (2003). Organizational life cycle: a five-stage empirical scale. The International Journal of Organizational Analysis, 11(4), 339–354. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb028979
Lima, A. S. de, Carvalho, E. V. A. de, Paulo, E., & Girão, L. F. de A. P. (2015). Estágios do Ciclo de Vida e Qualidade das Informações Contábeis no Brasil. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 19(3), 398–418. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-7849rac20151711
Mikosz, K. da S. C., Roma, C. M. da S., Louzada, L. C., & Macedo, M. R. G. de O. (2019). Previsão de retornos e preços das ações a partir de dados contábeis condicionado ao ciclo de vida das firmas. Revista de Contabilidade e Organizações, 13(27), e160869. https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1982-6486.rco.2019.160869
Moreira, C. S., de Araújo, J. G., Silva, G. R. D., & Lucena, W. G. L. (2023). Environmental, social and governance e o ciclo de vida das firmas: evidências no mercado brasileiro. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 34(92), e1729. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x20231729.pt
Nicolò, G., Santis, S., Incollingo, A., & Tartaglia Polcini, P. (2024). Value Relevance Research in Accounting and Reporting Domains: A Bibliometric Analysis. Accounting in Europe, 21(2), 176–211. https://doi.org/10.1080/17449480.2023.2292654
Nizar, H., Uyar, A., Lakhal, F., & Karaman, A. S. (2025). Does the Corporate Lifecycle Affect Board Structure? International Evidence. Corporate Governance: An International Review, corg.12645. https://doi.org/10.1111/corg.12645
Novaes, P. V. G., Borges Junior, P., De Almeida, J. E. F., & Bortolon, P. M. (2018). Accruals Discricionários E Previsões Otimistas Dos Analistas: Incentivos E Consequências. Contabilidade Vista & Revista, 29(1), 28–47. https://doi.org/10.22561/cvr.v29i1.3627
Ohlson, J. (1995). Earnings, book-values, and dividends in equity valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research, 11(2), 661–687. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1995.tb00461.x
Oliveira, A. S., & Girão, L. F. de A. P. (2018). Acurácia na previsão de lucros e os estágios do ciclo de vida organizacional: evidências no mercado brasileiro de capitais. REPEC - Revista de Educação e Pesquisa Em Contabilidade, 12(1), 121–144. https://doi.org/10.17524/repec.v12i1.1530
Oliveira, T., & Coelho, A. (2018). Padrão Contábil Orientado Para Mercado e Desempenho de Analistas: Evidências no Brasil. Brazilian Business Review, 15(3), 226–245. https://doi.org/10.15728/bbr.2018.15.3.2
Oliveira, W. da C. de, & Monte-Mor, D. S. (2022). The Influence of the Organizational Life Cycle on the Violation of Financial Covenants. Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios, 24(4), 708–722. https://doi.org/10.7819/rbgn.v24i4.4204
Ou, J. A., & Sepe, J. F. (2002). Analysts earnings forecasts and the roles of earnings and book value in equity valuation. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 29(3–4), 287–316. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5957.00433
Park, Y., & Chen, K. H. (2006). The effect of accounting conservatism and life-cycle stages on firm valuation. Journal of Applied Business Research, 22(3), 75–92. https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v22i3.1428
Penrose, E. T. (1952). Biological Analogies in the Theory of the Firm. The American Economic Review, 42(5), 804–819. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1812528
Pimentel, R. C., & De Aguiar, A. B. (2016). The role of earnings persistence in valuation accuracy and the time horizon. RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, 56(1), 71–86. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-759020160107
Ribeiro, J. P. M., Paulo, E., & Magro, C. B. D. (2024). Transição entre os estágios do ciclo de vida da firma e estratégias de gerenciamento de resultados. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 35(96), e1954. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x20231954.pt
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05-11-2025
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MACHADO RIBEIRO, J. P., & Paulo, E. (2025). Effects of the life cycle stage on errors in earnings forecasts and their value relevance. Revista De Educação E Pesquisa Em Contabilidade , 19. https://doi.org/10.17524/repec.v19.e3779
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